If you've posted in forums you might remember writing some decent responses. I usually spend a lot of time polishing my discussion forum responses depending on the subject or who I am talking to. Often I want to remember what I said about something, but finding the original post can be difficult. So it makes sense to capture the better responses for later review. Welcome to Clint's Reposts.Tuesday, November 16, 2004
The Problem With Experts
In response to a post by David on the politic forum:
http://www.network54.com/Forum/message?forumid=79106&messageid=1100310151
that talked about a fiscal black hole and how deep in doo doo we are and comparing government to business, I wrote:
Well, this brings to mind Hilaire Belloc's epigram "Epitaph on the Politician".
Here richly, with ridiculous display,
The Politician's corpse was laid away.
While all of his acquaintance sneered and slanged
I wept: for I had longed to see him hanged.
The problem with trotting out expert's reports is that experts are so very, very, very often wrong - in fact, I would venture to guess they are almost ALWAYS wrong when predicting the future. In the last couple decades we were supposed to enter the ice age, then the warm age, run out of oil, run out of food, destroy ourselves with nukes, etc. etc. etc. The population bomb was supposed to have happened long ago. Jesus' re-appearance is long overdue. Asteroids should have hit hard by now. Earthquakes are about to take out CA. Prediction is a great way to sell a book or movie. I can understand why they let the dude go - he sounds kind of like the guy on the TV ads selling government grants with all the question marks on his suit.
What we find in reality is that things are a lot more resiliant then the latest expert can account for. These guys -- they fade back into the woodwork when their prediction's don't pan out. It's an awful big planet full of mystery and unknowns.
I'm not saying that stress, wars, famine, gnashing of teeth do not exist. Of course they do. But in almost every case, when some supposed expert looks down that long telescope toward the future, the future turns out not predicatable when all is said and done.
The U.S. government is not at all like a business, just like social security is not at all like a real pension plan. As a result, all bets are off concerning what will REALLY happen over the course.
At least, that is my opinion. I could be wrong.
C
http://www.network54.com/Forum/message?forumid=79106&messageid=1100310151
that talked about a fiscal black hole and how deep in doo doo we are and comparing government to business, I wrote:
Well, this brings to mind Hilaire Belloc's epigram "Epitaph on the Politician".
Here richly, with ridiculous display,
The Politician's corpse was laid away.
While all of his acquaintance sneered and slanged
I wept: for I had longed to see him hanged.
The problem with trotting out expert's reports is that experts are so very, very, very often wrong - in fact, I would venture to guess they are almost ALWAYS wrong when predicting the future. In the last couple decades we were supposed to enter the ice age, then the warm age, run out of oil, run out of food, destroy ourselves with nukes, etc. etc. etc. The population bomb was supposed to have happened long ago. Jesus' re-appearance is long overdue. Asteroids should have hit hard by now. Earthquakes are about to take out CA. Prediction is a great way to sell a book or movie. I can understand why they let the dude go - he sounds kind of like the guy on the TV ads selling government grants with all the question marks on his suit.
What we find in reality is that things are a lot more resiliant then the latest expert can account for. These guys -- they fade back into the woodwork when their prediction's don't pan out. It's an awful big planet full of mystery and unknowns.
I'm not saying that stress, wars, famine, gnashing of teeth do not exist. Of course they do. But in almost every case, when some supposed expert looks down that long telescope toward the future, the future turns out not predicatable when all is said and done.
The U.S. government is not at all like a business, just like social security is not at all like a real pension plan. As a result, all bets are off concerning what will REALLY happen over the course.
At least, that is my opinion. I could be wrong.
C
